A SYSTEMIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

Abstract

Climate change affects the agricultural sector, energy systems, and transit infrastructure, leading to both domestic and transboundary consequences. Therefore, risk assessment and management should be based on a systemic approach that takes into account global interdependencies, the cross-border nature of climate threats, and the need for regional cooperation to enhance the resilience of socio-ecological systems. The aim of this study is to develop a scientifically grounded methodology for comprehensive assessment and management of climate risks, considering ecosystem, socio-economic, and spatial factors in the context of Ukraine’s sustainable development. Based on the analysis of modern theoretical and methodological approaches to climate risk assessment and management, it has been established that the international scientific community has shifted from the concept of isolated analysis of individual hazards to integrated approaches that combine physical, socio-economic, and institutional dimensions of risk. This creates a foundation for policies aimed at climate adaptation and sustainable development. In the process of Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA), both current and potential future states of systems are analyzed, enabling decision-making that accounts for environmental dynamics and possible development scenarios. A clear definition of objectives, criteria, and values against which the risk is assessed forms the foundation for planning measures aimed at risk reduction and enhancing system resilience. The proposed comprehensive perspective on climate change risk encompasses the full spectrum of climate-related hazards and considers their interaction with non-climatic threats. Risk is viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon shaped by cascading processes and nonlinear interconnections among subsystems. Such a scientific approach forms the methodological basis for developing adaptation and recovery strategies oriented toward resilience, inclusiveness, and equity, while also providing a foundation for the further integration of innovative tools into national climate policy and environmental governance practices.