ANALYSIS OF NETWORK DIGITAL TWIN TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION INTO THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINE’S TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE BASED ON THE BUILD BACK BETTER PRINCIPLE

Abstract

Since February 2022 Ukraine’s telecom infrastructure has suffered damages exceeding USD 2.2 billion, with recovery needs estimated at USD 5.86 billion. Current restoration practices remain largely reactive: damaged network elements are replaced on a case-by-case basis without systematic resilience assessment or data-driven prioritisation at the network level. This approach leads to repeated failures in the same segments, inefficient allocation of limited donor funding, and inability to account for cross-sectoral interdependencies, particularly between telecommunications and energy infrastructure. The Build Back Better (BBB) principle, endorsed by international frameworks, calls for using the recovery phase to enhance long-term resilience rather than merely restoring pre-disaster conditions. However, without a quantitative analytical tool, BBB remains a declarative guideline that is difficult to operationalise. This paper analyses the integration of Network Digital Twin (NDT) technology into a conceptual framework for resilience assessment and BBB-driven recovery planning for conflict-affected telecom infrastructure of Ukraine. The hypothesis posits that such a framework can bridge the gap between reactive point-by-point restoration and a systematic approach to decision-making under conflict conditions. Based on a synthesis of 19 peer-reviewed and institutional sources, the study defines six operational resilience metrics adapted for telecom networks: availability, connectivity, fault tolerance, time-to-recover, redundancy, and energy autonomy. The paper adapts an NDT architecture augmented with the Digital Risk Twin (DRT) concept for conditions of incomplete data and ongoing conflict, and specifies a closed-loop decision cycle: data collection, NDT modelling, what-if scenario simulation, resilience-driven prioritisation, BBB intervention, and continuous twin updating. The framework is contextualised for the Ukrainian telecom market, taking into account the regulatory requirements of NCEC and national standards (DSTU ETSI EN 302 217). Two qualitative scenarios illustrate the framework’s application to cascading power-telecom failures and backbone link destruction. A simplified numerical example on a hypothetical 7-node network demonstrates the computational viability of the proposed management cycle and the quantitative advantage of BBB interventions over minimal restoration. A comparative analysis of reactive versus proactive (NDT+BBB) recovery approaches is presented. The principal contribution is the novel integration of NDT, resilience metrics, and BBB into a unified decision-support methodology for post-conflict telecom recovery. The framework remains conceptual and requires empirical validation through pilot deployment.